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London Metal Exchange nickel has spurted from US$6.31 a pound in December 2013 to US$8.64 in July and should climb to US$10.75 in 2015 and US$12 in 2016, the Scotiabank report says.
In Mohr’s view, the January 11, 2014 ban on the export of unprocessed nickel-containing ore from Indonesia (accounting for 28% of world supplies) is likely to hold (without exception).
She goes on to write that the world supply and demand balance will shift into a market deficit in 2015 as China depletes its inventory of Indonesian ore for Nickel Pig Iron production (used in stainless steel).
Prices will remain high until 2016 (second half) when new processing plants become available in Indonesia, Mohr said, adding that 16 have been proposed, funded mostly by China.
There is no specific reference to copper in the Scotiabank report, likely because analysts remain divided over the future direction of prices. As noted in a Reuters report, opinions are split over whether copper will continue its recent rally or lose ground over the rest of 2014.
London copper prices have gained 3.4% between August 14 and Tuesday’s close of $7,054 a tonne, although they are still down 4.2% since the start of the year.
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