[Fellow]China's exports declined more than expected in July, hobbled by a strong yuan and lowerdemand in the European Union, and adding pressure on the government to stabilize growth.
[Ferro-alloys.com] China's exports declined more than expected in July, hobbled by a strong yuan and lowerdemand in the European Union, and adding pressure on the government to stabilize growth.
Overseas shipments fell by 8.3 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration revealedover the weekend. The reading was well below the estimate for a 1.5 percent decline in aBloomberg survey and compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in June. Imports dropped 8.1percent, widening from a 6.6 percent decrease in June, leaving a trade surplus of $43 billion.
Along with weak domestic investment, subdued global demand is putting China's 2015 growthtarget of about 7 percent at risk. The government has rolled out fresh pro-expansion measures,including special bond sales to finance construction, but has held off weakening the yuan asChina seeks reserve-currency status for the yuan.
"Exports are no longer an engine for China growth-no matter what the government does, it's justimpossible to see strong export growth as in the past," said Bank of Communications economistLiu Xuezhi. "It means additional slowdown pressure, and it requires the government to be moreaggressive in the domestic market."
EU Exports
China's exports to the European Union fell by 2.5 percent in the first seven months of 2015 from ayear earlier, while shipments to Japan dropped by 10.5 percent. One bright spot was exports tothe US, which expanded by 9.3 percent.
Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a research note on Saturdaythat the slump in exports "compounds downward pressure on China's economy and threatens tobring exchange rate depreciation onto the table as a tool to restore competitiveness".
The People's Bank of China has adopted a viselike grip on the yuan, allowing little movement ofthe currency in the onshore market. The currency's closing levels in Shanghai this week matchedthe tightest range recorded since a fixed exchange rate ended a decade ago.
"On a trade weighted measure, China's yuan appreciated sharply since 2014," said Liu Li-Gang,chief Greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. "Meanwhile, external demand remains weak as also shown by the poor export turnout in Taiwanand South Korea."
Oil Imports
While Chinese imports declined in July, it was mainly caused by falling commodity prices.China's crude oil imports rose in volume to a monthly record as small, private refineriespurchased more from overseas amid low oil prices.
"Looking at the import volume data-which strips out the impact of price movements-oilpurchases remain on trend," Orlik said.
Domestically, the government is stepping up efforts to help growth. China is planning at least 1trillion yuan ($161 billion) in bonds, and potentially a multiple of that, to fund construction projects,people familiar with the matter said earlier. Authorities are also expanding policy banks' lendingcapacity.
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