[Ferro-Alloys.com] Australia's Queensland government expects coal exports from the state to drop by 8pc from a year earlier in the 2020-21 fiscal year to 30 June because of the impact of Covid-19 and uncertainty about access to the Chinese market.

 

The state treasury predicts exports to fall to 188mn t in 2020-21 from 206mn t in 2019-20 before rebounding to 211mn t in 2021-22. It projects coal royalties to fall to A$1.64bn ($1.21bn) this year from A$3.52bn in 2019-20, according to the latest budget papers released yesterday.

 

Queensland coal ports, excluding the small port of Brisbane, shipped around 80mn t during July-November, down from around 90mn t in the same period last year, according to a combination of port data and initial shipping data collated by Argus. Brisbane coal shipments are down by 2mn t over a rolling 12 months to the end of October to 4.5mn t/yr because of reduced output of the New Acland coal mine.

 

This implies that Queensland's treasury expects coal shipments to pick up over the next seven months, if coal exports are only to fall by 18mn t in 2020-21 from 206mn t in 2019-20.

 

Queensland's coal exports fell by 8.3mn t in the July-September quarter, with the majority of this thermal coal that fell by 7.3mn t, according to the budget papers. Analysis of the initial shipping data suggests that this may have shifted this quarter, with the coking coal port of Hay Point, which is operated by the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, having a particularly slow November. The official port data for November should be out next week.

 

The state cut its 2020-21 thermal coal price forecasts to $68/t from $78/t a year ago. This is still higher than the high-grade thermal coal price that Argus last assessed at $65.11/t fob Newcastle on 27 November, up from a low of $46.18/t on 4 September.

 

Source: Argusmedia