[Ferro-Alloys.com] 

  In 2020, commodities will experience a bull market, among which the black series will be extremely crazy. Iron ore (1050,9.00,0.86%), coke (2726, - 1.50, - 0.06%) and coking coal (1633,12.50,0.77%) all set new records.

  Is there a big chance for thread and hot coil (4438,70.00,1.60%) varieties in 2021? The major institutions are still optimistic about the steel market.

  Dongzheng Futures: steel price may rise to 5000 yuan

  In the first half of the year, the steel price may rise to more than 5000 ¥/ T. With the resumption of production of overseas steel plants and the progress of vaccines, we still hold a relatively cautious attitude towards the market in the second half of the year.

  Yong'an Futures: steel price moves up in 2021, but the trend of opportunities decrease

  We are cautiously optimistic about the overall steel market next year. With the overall recovery of domestic and foreign economy, but the steady recovery of domestic macro policies, the steel price level is expected to move up in 2021, but the fluctuation will intensify, and the trend may weaken. Therefore, in 2021, the steel industry will move forward in the process of economic recovery and price overvaluation, and the fluctuation range of the market may be intensified, and the trend of opportunities may be reduced.

  Xinda Futures: steel demand expansion still has room to rise

  Next year, the overall terminal demand will be stable and upward, and the hot rolled coil in steel will be stronger than that of rebar (4332,33.00,0.77%). At the same time, because the demand of plate is relatively better than that of long material, the supply of rebar remains neutral, so there is still room for the price of rebar to rise during the peak demand season of rebar next year. Next year, the running range of rebar price is 3900 ¥/ T -4600 ¥/ T, and the running range of hot rolled coil price is 4200 ¥/ T -4900 ¥/ T.

  Nanhua Futures: Black commodities as bulls

  Based on the fact that there is still an increase in black terminal demand under this year's high base, black goods can still be appropriately allocated as long contracts. However, the high short-term price is facing the impact of the off-season decline during the Spring Festival. We can consider making long rb2105 contracts near 4000, with a target of 4500. Bargain hunting around 4300, long hc2105 contract, target 5000.

  CITIC Futures: the pattern of strong volume and weak snail will continue

  Considering that the capacity expansion of EAF mainly focuses on the production of building materials, the supply elasticity of rebar may be further enhanced next year, and the stronger state of demand side manufacturing industry relative to construction industry is expected to continue. Therefore, we expect that the pattern of strong coil and weak screw will continue.

  Huatai Futures: Valuation center is expected to rise

  In 2021, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the valuation center is expected to go up, supported by the prices of iron ore, coke and other raw materials and short process production costs, while the upward space is limited by demand, so as to find the rhythm of supply and demand mismatch in investment.

• [Editor:Catherine Ren]