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The longer the European scrap supply issue persists, the longer Turkish scrap import prices could remain at elevated levels.
When Turkish scrap import prices rose in the previous round from 23 June to 7 July, they then largely maintained levels above $400/t cfr for premium HMS 1/2 80:20 until 18 July before falling sharply to $350/t by 27 July. The drop was driven by weaker demand for Turkish rebar and US scrap exporters' appetite to sell and take advantage of lower dockside prices relative to other global competitors.
But Turkish steel producers were only able to buy around five deep-sea cargoes in the second half of July — from any origin — and bought almost nothing at bottom market prices at the end of July.
A renewed round of rebar restocking in Turkey rebuilt scrap demand from the start of August, but it was the lack of scrap supply in the market that really maintained upward pressure on prices and significantly cut Turkish mills' scrap-rebar margins.
Turkish scrap import prices have been increasing in the current round since 2 August. Based on the 27-day period of rising and elevated prices from late June to mid-July, and the greater disruption to overall scrap supply now compared with early July, Turkish scrap import prices could remain elevated through to September.
Turkish steelmakers have to cover domestic rebar sales done from 28 July to 8 August, which means it will be difficult to apply any counter pressure to scrap prices in the short term considering the lack of available supply options.
But if Turkish demand turns extremely limited towards the end of August once they have covered their domestic rebar sales and rebar demand for subsequent shipment remains low, renewed pressure on scrap prices could emerge. Deep-sea scrap exporters, either in or outside Europe, could bet on an improvement in European logistics and supply in September, and in turn increase offer availability to Turkey.
Short-sea scrap offers are becoming more visible to Turkish mills today as western Black Sea HMS 1/2 80:20 prices rise into the mid-to-high $380s/t cif, but Turkish mills' ability to actually put downward pressure on import prices in the middle of August will be very difficult based on the lack of supply from northern Europe.
argusmedia.com
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