[Ferro-Alloys.com]Uncertainty over international thermal coal prices continues to weigh on Vietnam's coal import outlook, but the country's economic growth momentum is supporting coal demand despite its move to enter a $15.5bn energy transition pact.

 

Vietnamese buyers took to the market sidelines as volatility intensified in 2022, with changes in trade flows after the EU ban on Russian coal. The country's seaborne coal receipts are expected to fall for the second straight year in 2022 after importing 29mn t of coal in the first eleven months of the year, down from 33.5mn t in the year-earlier period, according to its customs data. Vietnamese customs data do not differentiate between coking and thermal coal. Indonesia and Australia are exporters to Vietnam.

 

Argus assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $93.23/t fob Kalimantan on 16 December, rising by around 28pc from four months ago. The price hit a record high of $154.21/t fob Kalimantan on 22 October 2021, having risen steadily from a low of $22.40/t on 11 September 2020. Australian high-ash NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal was last assessed by Argus at $138.10/t fob Newcastle on 16 December, as prices continued to ease from a high of $287.15/t on 11 March. The Newcastle NAR 5,500 kcal/kg prices hit lows of $35.04/t in September 2020.

 

Prospects of the country's coal imports in 2023 will also hinge on a number of other factors. These factors include a steady uptick in industrial activity, on the back of more multi-national companies looking to set up manufacturing and assembling units in the southeast Asian country, potentially driving coal-fired generation to cater for an increase in power demand. Prospects for imports could also get a leg up from the government's plans to liberalise the electricity pricing mechanism. Vietnam has also made efforts in 2022 to raise local coal production, although domestic reserves are not sufficient to fully meet the requirements of a growing economy.

 

The country's coal-power fleet is crucial to power its economic growth prospects, even as Vietnam looks to expand its renewable energy footprint. Coal-fired generation accounted for 38pc of total generation in January-October, according to state-controlled utility EVN.

 

Coal power and energy transition

A number of developed countries will mobilise $15.5bn in public and private finance over the next 3-5 years to support Vietnam's 2050 net zero goals, under a new Just Energy Transition Partnership signed on 14 December.

 

The agreement seeks to limit Vietnam's peak coal-fired capacity to 30.2GW, compared with the current plan of 37GW, as part of efforts to shift the country away from fossil fuels. Vietnam has 23.4GW of installed coal-fired capacity, according to research and advocacy group Global Energy Monitor.

 

The recent pact to finance energy transition is a commitment, and may not be a certainty given Vietnam's focus on having a stable and comparatively cheaper source of energy like coal to support the its socio-economic growth plans, a Vietnam-focused market participant said.

 

Electricity pricing

Vietnam is considering a policy to allow utilities to adjust average retail electricity prices according to fluctuations in input costs in a tiered manner, giving EVN some freedom in changing the tariff in line with coal prices.

 

The utility's finances have come under pressure as it could not fully pass on the bulk of raw material costs to its customers. This led to lower generation and rationing of power in the country, especially during the summer heatwave. Authorities have directed domestic coal producers to raise supplies to utilities.

 

Domestic production

Vietnam's coal production rose to about 46mn t in January-November, up from 43.4mnt a year earlier, according to Vietnam's General Statistics Office.

 

State-controlled coal producers Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries and the Northeast Corporation are looking to raise local output and supplies further. But limited coal resources in the country mean that coal-consuming industries and utilities will continue to seek imported coal to meet their growing needs.argusmedia