[Ferro-Alloys.com]

[Spot Market]

Cost side: In October, the overall price of semi-coke decreased. At the end of the month, the quotation for small-sized in the Shenmu and Fugu areas was mostly 1230-1400 CNY/T, with a maximum price reduction of 170 CNY/T; The factory price of silica in Qinghai and Ningxia regions was 220-260 CNY/T; The price of 70# oxide skin in Shijiazhuang, Hebei was 920-950 CNY/T; The electricity price in the main production areas was 0.4-0.48 CNY/kWh.

Futures market: In October, the main contract rapidly declined and then fluctuated and consolidated. The monthly opening price was 7484, the highest price was 7484, the lowest price was 6908, the closing price was 7056, the settlement price was 7006, the position was 138231, the trading volume was 2591467, and the transaction amount was 91.6286 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.27%.

Spot side: The supplies remained stable, but downstream steel mills had seen profits shrink, some of them started the maintenance, and kept a low inventory of ferrosilicon. Steel tender prices continued to decline; The metal magnesium market was also relatively weak, with difficult demand releasing, and the market sentiment was relatively low. Some representative enterprises in Ningxia started maintenance plans this month, with maintenance durations ranging from 3 to 15 days. On the other hand, although the price of ferrosilicon has been lowered, considering cost support, the overall reduction was limited. At the end of the month, the quotation for 72# ferrosilicon standard blocks in the main production areas was mostly around 6850-6950 CNY/T, while the quotation for 75# ferrosilicon standard blocks was mostly around 7500-7600 CNY/T. Waiting for the November steel tender to set the tone.

[Export Data] According to data of China Customs, in September 2023, China exported 26185.293 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), a year-on-year decrease of 17063.193 tons, a decrease of 39.45%; The month on month decrease was 1715.219 tons, a decrease of 6.15%. From January to September 2023, China exported 296124.146 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), a year-on-year decrease of 231276.624 tons or 43.85%. In September 2023, China exported 2362.132 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤55% of silicon), an increase of 187.632 tons year-on-year or 8.63%; The month on month decrease was 103.868 tons, a decrease of 4.21%. From January to September 2023, China exported 20679.714 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤55% of silicon), an increase of 840.137 tons year-on-year or 4.23%.

[Steel Market] In October, the steel market initially suppressed and then rose. In the early stage, due to the contraction of demand, the market trading atmosphere was average, and steel prices continued to decline slightly. The profits of steel mills were poor, and there was an increase in maintenance and production reduction. The market sentiment was low, and cautious wait-and-see was the main trend. Driven by positive macro policy news and environmental protection and production restriction policies in some regions, steel prices ended their downward trend and continued to rise. Driven by this, the steel market was expected to operate stronger in November.

[Metal Magnesium Market] Due to insufficient demand follow-up, difficulties for downstream users to accept high prices, and some inventory pressure on the supply side, magnesium prices plummeted sharply in October, greatly exceeding market expectations. After experiencing several rounds of deep pullbacks, the factory stated that its profits were meager, the willingness to stabilize the market increased, and downstream users chose to enter the market to restock. The transaction improved, and magnesium prices stabilized or even slightly rebounded around the end of the month. However, downstream demand has not improved after all, and the sustained upward momentum of magnesium prices was not supported, and it would operate weakly and steadily in the short term. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex-factory cash quotation including tax of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu area was mostly around 21000 CNY/T.

• [Editor:kangmingfei]