[Ferro-Alloys.com]

Cost Side: The ex-factory quotation for small-sized semi coke was about 800-950 CNY/T; The factory price of silica was around 180-260 CNY/T; The price of oxide skin was around 950-980 CNY/T; The electricity prices ranged from 0.41 to 0.52 CNY//kWh.

Spot Market: At the beginning of April, the ferrosilicon market continued to be sluggish, and the tender volume and price of HBIS Group decreased simultaneously (the tender price of 75B ferrosilicon in April was 6600 CNY/T, a decrease of 150 CNY/T compared to the previous month; the tender volume was 1516 tons, a decrease of 124 tons compared to the previous month). However, since the end of March, the futures market has continued to rise, injecting confidence into the long sluggish ferrosilicon market. The subsequent tender prices of steel mills also turned from a decline to an increase. Fujian Sangang Group's ferrosilicon FeSi75-B was priced at 7200 CNY/T in April, including tax, with a quantity of 900 tons; Xin Steel's tender price for FeSi75-B ferrosilicon in May includes tax was priced at 7000 CNY/T. Driven by the improvement in market inquiry and transaction situation, manufacturers became more inclined to hold prices, and the quotation for 72# ferrosilicon standard blocks in the main production areas increased to around 6500-6650 CNY/T; The quotation for 75# ferrosilicon standard blocks was mostly around 6900-7100 CNY/T. The company's profit margin has been better, inventory pressure has been eased, and the willingness to resume production was increasing. Many believed that the operating rate and output would rebound in the near future. The short-term trend of ferrosilicon is expected to continue to be strong, but whether it can continue to remain strong in the future still requires attention to changes in supply and demand relationships.

Futures Market: In April, 2024, the monthly opening price of the main contract 2409 was 6468, the highest price was 7258, the lowest price was 6422, the closing price was 7048, the settlement price was 7110, the position was 206876, the trading volume was 2547211, and the transaction amount was 88.2190 billion yuan, an increase of 1.99%.

Export Data: According to data of China Customs, in March 2024, China exported 37282.59 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), an increase of 2616.698 tons year-on-year, or 7.55%; in March 2024, China exported 2220.6 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤ 55% of silicon), an increase of 68.014 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3.16%; From January to March 2024, China exported 111901.879 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), an increase of 1351.962 tons year-on-year, or 1.22%; from January to March 2024, China exported 5540.3 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤ 55% of silicon), a year-on-year decrease of 771.63 tons, a decrease of 12.22%.

Steel Market: The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) steel demand forecast for 2024 and 2025 on 9th, April. worldsteel forecasts that this year demand will see a 1.7% rebound to reach 1,793 Mt. Steel demand is forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2025 to reach 1,815 Mt. They expect that steel demand in China in 2024 will remain around the level of 2023, as real estate investments continue to decline, but the corresponding steel demand loss will be offset by growth in steel demand coming from infrastructure investments and manufacturing sectors. Starting from April, traditional steel consumption has entered the peak season, and the macro policies were still favorable with continuous growth in demand side manufacturing investment, increased outdoor construction,  and apparent demand has rebounded, inventory has decreased, as well as strong cost side support, the steel market continued to recover, and steel prices fluctuated strongly, the profitability of steel mills has improved, market sentiment has gradually strengthened, and resumption of production has also increased. In the short term, steel prices is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, but there is also a need to be cautious of potential pullbacks.

Metal Magnesium Market: In April, the domestic magnesium market initially rose strongly and then fell back under pressure. In the early to mid period, due to the low pressure on shipment and a positive attitude, the factory showed a strong reluctance to sell, the prices were relatively firm with mainstream ex-factory cash quotation including tax of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu area mostly around 18700-18800 CNY/T. However, the mentality on the demand side was relatively cautious, with limited high price transactions. In the latter half of the year, due to flat demand, light inquiries, weak high-price transactions, and factories adjusting their prices according to market trends. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex-factory cash quotation including tax of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu area was mostly around 18000-18100 CNY/T. In the short term, there is still pressure on the operation of the magnesium market in a state of strong supply and weak demand, which may lead to weak consolidation.

• [Editor:kangmingfei]