Today (February 6, 2025), the price of silicon manganese in The ZCE Future suddenly surged. The main reasons can be analyzed from the following aspects:

1. Tightening Supply

• Domestic silicon manganese producers have been purchasing and stocking up for production before the Spring Festival holiday to prepare for the steel procurement in February and March, leading to a decline in port inventories.

• The continuous rise in the import price of manganese ore futures Bid has further pushed up the production cost of silicon manganese, supporting the upward price trend.

2. Stable Demand

• Downstream steel mills have maintained stable demand for silicon manganese, and the prices of other furnace materials have also rebounded significantly today.

• With the approach of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," the market's optimistic expectations for steel and furnace material demand have indirectly boosted the price of silicon manganese.

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3. Manganese Ore Supply-Demand Gap

• The reduction in Gabon ore and the delayed resumption of shipments from Australian mines have led to a larger-than-expected reduction in high-grade ore supply. The resumption of shipments from South32's Groote Eylandt manganese mine has been postponed from March to June, affecting approximately 1 million tons of high-grade manganese ore supply.

• Port manganese ore inventories have continued to decline. As of January 24, the total manganese ore inventory at Chinese ports has dropped to 3.934 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and a 40% drop from the November peak.

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4. Strengthening Cost Support

• Port manganese ore quotations have continued to rise, with Gabon high-grade ore quotations increasing to 50 yuan/dmtu, a daily increase of 4.2%, and a nearly 20% increase since early January. The cost of silicon manganese has risen to 6,322 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.3%, and a 5.5% increase since early January.

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5. Market Sentiment and Technical Aspects

• Today, the transacted volume of the silicon manganese 2505 contract has significantly increased, with a large amount of capital entering the market to go long. The open interest has also increased simultaneously. By midday, the price had risen by 4.92% to 7,118 yuan/ton, successfully breaking through the previous high. Long positions dominate, and the technical formation shows an upward breakout.

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6. External Factors

• The overall strength of the black series futures, including strong performances in iron ore ， coking coal and carbon steel wires and bars, has provided some support to the silicon manganese price.

In summary, the surge in silicon manganese Futures prices is the result of multiple factors working together, including tightening supply, stable demand, a manganese ore supply-demand gap, strengthening cost support, and the push from market sentiment and technical aspects.

• [Editor:admin]