Domestic demand steady, price outlook positive, says Tata Steel CEO

Domestic demand for steel is holding steady and Tata Steel expects prices in India to remain stable to slightly positive in the near term, according to Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer TV Narendran. “Prices have moved up a bit in India. It's about ?3,000 higher this quarter than last quarter,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

While acknowledging that Indian steel is currently priced at a premium to landed imports, Narendran noted that the safeguard duty and other risks such as foreign exchange fluctuations and shipment lags are helping limit imports. “Imports are not yet significant… we’re looking forward to some stability in prices and some positive movement going forward,” he said.,

Despite some temporary disruptions due to maintenance at its Jamshedpur facility, Narendran expects volumes to be higher this year. “Net, we should be about 1.5 million tonnes more this year compared to last year.”

These are the edited excerpts of the interview.

Q: Prices have moved up a bit in India. Could you elaborate on the pricing trend across geographies?

A: Yes, prices have moved up a bit. In India, it’s about ?3,000 higher this quarter than last quarter. In Europe, it’s about €20 to €30 higher this quarter compared to the last quarter.

Q: Indian prices have moved up considerably. There's now a safeguard duty as well, which will protect the domestic industry. But the landed cost of steel is actually cheaper. Indian steel is at a premium to the landed cost of imported steel. Do you see this pricing sustain or there is a risk to pricing going ahead?

A: The pricing can certainly sustain at this level. Whether it goes higher depends on what happens in international markets. The concern is that China continues to export about 10 million tonnes a month. They did that in both March and April, which certainly dampens international prices.

However, importing into India carries forex risk and uncertainty, as material arrives three months later and you don’t know where prices will be then. That’s why imports are not significant yet. The safeguard duty has helped stem the flow a bit, so we are looking forward to price stability and some positive movement going forward.

Q: What about the cost of coking coal, a major input cost? How did it move last quarter and what are your expectations for the current quarter?

A: We’re guiding that this quarter will see about $10 lower coking coal consumption cost. We already got a lot of benefit from the price drop last quarter. The fall in coking coal prices has now stabilised. In fact, it has gone up by $10–15 in the last few weeks. But from a consumption point of view, we expect the cost to be about $10 lower this quarter versus the last.

Q: You’ve guided for savings of around ?11,500 crore across geographies in the coming year. What does this mean for profitability? When does Europe turn EBITDA-positive? What’s the EBITDA trend for India?

A: In Europe, we’re in the middle of transformation, both in the UK and the Netherlands. The challenge there is the constant need to transform. In the UK, we’ve closed the blast furnaces and will commission the electric arc furnace in 2027. In the interim, we’re taking out a lot of costs. We’ve already removed about £230 million in fixed costs last year and plan to cut another £200 million this year.

In the Netherlands, we are in the middle of a major transformation. From €450–500 million negative EBITDA to €80–90 million positive. That’s a swing of €500 million despite tough market conditions. We expect this trend to continue.

So yes, we expect the Netherlands to stay EBITDA-positive and improve further. The UK is close to break-even, and cost savings from last year will play out this year. For FY26, we expect Europe—UK and Netherlands combined—to be EBITDA-positive, though more work remains.

As for India, I can’t give specific EBITDA guidance, but we expect it to be better than last year.

Q: By which quarter does the European business turn positive? And what’s the timeline for the UK turning green?

A: Europe will move into the green from this quarter itself. The UK will still be marginally negative this quarter, but we hope to turn positive in the next couple of quarters. We expect the UK to be EBITDA-positive for the full year.

Q: Let’s talk about the debt. Working capital release has helped reduce it from ?88,000 crore to ?82,000 crore. Capex is ongoing too. Could you share your FY26 capex and net debt guidance?

A: Capex will remain around ?15,000 crore. We’re completing the Kalinganagar expansion, and much of the spending is between last year and this year.

Last year was tough. We were emerging from a weak market, with peak capex at Kalinganagar, and volume ramp-up still underway. We expect better cash flows in FY26 and plan to reduce debt. I’m not giving a specific number, but we certainly intend to bring the debt down.

Q: So net debt at the end of FY26 will be lower than FY25? Could it drop by $1 billion?

A: Yes, that’s correct. Whether it’s $1 billion or not, we’re chasing that goal, but we’re still some distance away. We are working on it.

Q: A question on global trade. Are Donald Trump’s tariff moves affecting demand and supply? How are you reading the situation globally?

A: What it has done is provoked everyone to look at themselves. So if I look at Europe today, they are looking at how they can work in an environment where they can’t depend as much on the US as they did in the past. You see a lot more positive thinking in Europe about manufacturing, about investing in defence, etc.

Over the medium to long term, it’s positive for Europe, because they will spend more in Europe, whether it’s what Germany has already announced, or what the other countries are planning to spend more. So there is a medium to long-term positive impact on Europe, as manufacturing will get a boost.

But having said that, in the short term, we are dealing with these tariffs. The UK has got into an understanding with the US. So we don’t see a negative impact of the Trump tariffs, because the UK has got itself a deal.

But as far as the EU is concerned, they’re still negotiating. About 700,000 tonnes of steel goes from our Netherlands operation to the US. Some of that went to the US. Some of those steels are not made in the US. So to that extent, our customers in the US are also struggling with these tariffs, and part of those tariffs will obviously get passed on to the customers there. But that’s a discussion we are having. We’re also waiting to see what the EU government and the Trump government conclude in their discussions.

Q: Lastly, what is your India volume growth guidance for FY26? Is domestic demand holding up well?

A: Demand has been quite reasonable. In fact, it's because the demand has been strong that Indian steel producers have managed without exporting much, because international prices are not great and export markets are not really attractive. From that perspective, the Indian demand is holding up okay. This year, we are expecting about a 1.5 million tonnes more than last year. We have another blast furnace realigning coming up in Jamshedpur, and that's why we have some loss of volume in Jamshedpur because of that. But net, we should be about a 1.5 million tonnes more this year compared to last year.

Domestic demand steady, price outlook positive, says Tata Steel CEO

Domestic demand for steel is holding steady and Tata Steel expects prices in India to remain stable to slightly positive in the near term, according to Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer TV Narendran. “Prices have moved up a bit in India. It's about ?3,000 higher this quarter than last quarter,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

While acknowledging that Indian steel is currently priced at a premium to landed imports, Narendran noted that the safeguard duty and other risks such as foreign exchange fluctuations and shipment lags are helping limit imports. “Imports are not yet significant… we’re looking forward to some stability in prices and some positive movement going forward,” he said.,

Despite some temporary disruptions due to maintenance at its Jamshedpur facility, Narendran expects volumes to be higher this year. “Net, we should be about 1.5 million tonnes more this year compared to last year.”

These are the edited excerpts of the interview.

Q: Prices have moved up a bit in India. Could you elaborate on the pricing trend across geographies?

A: Yes, prices have moved up a bit. In India, it’s about ?3,000 higher this quarter than last quarter. In Europe, it’s about €20 to €30 higher this quarter compared to the last quarter.

Q: Indian prices have moved up considerably. There's now a safeguard duty as well, which will protect the domestic industry. But the landed cost of steel is actually cheaper. Indian steel is at a premium to the landed cost of imported steel. Do you see this pricing sustain or there is a risk to pricing going ahead?

A: The pricing can certainly sustain at this level. Whether it goes higher depends on what happens in international markets. The concern is that China continues to export about 10 million tonnes a month. They did that in both March and April, which certainly dampens international prices.

However, importing into India carries forex risk and uncertainty, as material arrives three months later and you don’t know where prices will be then. That’s why imports are not significant yet. The safeguard duty has helped stem the flow a bit, so we are looking forward to price stability and some positive movement going forward.

Q: What about the cost of coking coal, a major input cost? How did it move last quarter and what are your expectations for the current quarter?

A: We’re guiding that this quarter will see about $10 lower coking coal consumption cost. We already got a lot of benefit from the price drop last quarter. The fall in coking coal prices has now stabilised. In fact, it has gone up by $10–15 in the last few weeks. But from a consumption point of view, we expect the cost to be about $10 lower this quarter versus the last.

Q: You’ve guided for savings of around ?11,500 crore across geographies in the coming year. What does this mean for profitability? When does Europe turn EBITDA-positive? What’s the EBITDA trend for India?

A: In Europe, we’re in the middle of transformation, both in the UK and the Netherlands. The challenge there is the constant need to transform. In the UK, we’ve closed the blast furnaces and will commission the electric arc furnace in 2027. In the interim, we’re taking out a lot of costs. We’ve already removed about £230 million in fixed costs last year and plan to cut another £200 million this year.

In the Netherlands, we are in the middle of a major transformation. From €450–500 million negative EBITDA to €80–90 million positive. That’s a swing of €500 million despite tough market conditions. We expect this trend to continue.

So yes, we expect the Netherlands to stay EBITDA-positive and improve further. The UK is close to break-even, and cost savings from last year will play out this year. For FY26, we expect Europe—UK and Netherlands combined—to be EBITDA-positive, though more work remains.

As for India, I can’t give specific EBITDA guidance, but we expect it to be better than last year.

Q: By which quarter does the European business turn positive? And what’s the timeline for the UK turning green?

A: Europe will move into the green from this quarter itself. The UK will still be marginally negative this quarter, but we hope to turn positive in the next couple of quarters. We expect the UK to be EBITDA-positive for the full year.

Q: Let’s talk about the debt. Working capital release has helped reduce it from ?88,000 crore to ?82,000 crore. Capex is ongoing too. Could you share your FY26 capex and net debt guidance?

A: Capex will remain around ?15,000 crore. We’re completing the Kalinganagar expansion, and much of the spending is between last year and this year.

Last year was tough. We were emerging from a weak market, with peak capex at Kalinganagar, and volume ramp-up still underway. We expect better cash flows in FY26 and plan to reduce debt. I’m not giving a specific number, but we certainly intend to bring the debt down.

Q: So net debt at the end of FY26 will be lower than FY25? Could it drop by $1 billion?

A: Yes, that’s correct. Whether it’s $1 billion or not, we’re chasing that goal, but we’re still some distance away. We are working on it.

Q: A question on global trade. Are Donald Trump’s tariff moves affecting demand and supply? How are you reading the situation globally?

A: What it has done is provoked everyone to look at themselves. So if I look at Europe today, they are looking at how they can work in an environment where they can’t depend as much on the US as they did in the past. You see a lot more positive thinking in Europe about manufacturing, about investing in defence, etc.

Over the medium to long term, it’s positive for Europe, because they will spend more in Europe, whether it’s what Germany has already announced, or what the other countries are planning to spend more. So there is a medium to long-term positive impact on Europe, as manufacturing will get a boost.

But having said that, in the short term, we are dealing with these tariffs. The UK has got into an understanding with the US. So we don’t see a negative impact of the Trump tariffs, because the UK has got itself a deal.

But as far as the EU is concerned, they’re still negotiating. About 700,000 tonnes of steel goes from our Netherlands operation to the US. Some of that went to the US. Some of those steels are not made in the US. So to that extent, our customers in the US are also struggling with these tariffs, and part of those tariffs will obviously get passed on to the customers there. But that’s a discussion we are having. We’re also waiting to see what the EU government and the Trump government conclude in their discussions.

Q: Lastly, what is your India volume growth guidance for FY26? Is domestic demand holding up well?

A: Demand has been quite reasonable. In fact, it's because the demand has been strong that Indian steel producers have managed without exporting much, because international prices are not great and export markets are not really attractive. From that perspective, the Indian demand is holding up okay. This year, we are expecting about a 1.5 million tonnes more than last year. We have another blast furnace realigning coming up in Jamshedpur, and that's why we have some loss of volume in Jamshedpur because of that. But net, we should be about a 1.5 million tonnes more this year compared to last year.

Domestic demand steady, price outlook positive, says Tata Steel CEO

Domestic demand for steel is holding steady and Tata Steel expects prices in India to remain stable to slightly positive in the near term, according to Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer TV Narendran. “Prices have moved up a bit in India. It's about ?3,000 higher this quarter than last quarter,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

While acknowledging that Indian steel is currently priced at a premium to landed imports, Narendran noted that the safeguard duty and other risks such as foreign exchange fluctuations and shipment lags are helping limit imports. “Imports are not yet significant… we’re looking forward to some stability in prices and some positive movement going forward,” he said.,

Despite some temporary disruptions due to maintenance at its Jamshedpur facility, Narendran expects volumes to be higher this year. “Net, we should be about 1.5 million tonnes more this year compared to last year.”

These are the edited excerpts of the interview.

Q: Prices have moved up a bit in India. Could you elaborate on the pricing trend across geographies?

A: Yes, prices have moved up a bit. In India, it’s about ?3,000 higher this quarter than last quarter. In Europe, it’s about €20 to €30 higher this quarter compared to the last quarter.

Q: Indian prices have moved up considerably. There's now a safeguard duty as well, which will protect the domestic industry. But the landed cost of steel is actually cheaper. Indian steel is at a premium to the landed cost of imported steel. Do you see this pricing sustain or there is a risk to pricing going ahead?

A: The pricing can certainly sustain at this level. Whether it goes higher depends on what happens in international markets. The concern is that China continues to export about 10 million tonnes a month. They did that in both March and April, which certainly dampens international prices.

However, importing into India carries forex risk and uncertainty, as material arrives three months later and you don’t know where prices will be then. That’s why imports are not significant yet. The safeguard duty has helped stem the flow a bit, so we are looking forward to price stability and some positive movement going forward.

Q: What about the cost of coking coal, a major input cost? How did it move last quarter and what are your expectations for the current quarter?

A: We’re guiding that this quarter will see about $10 lower coking coal consumption cost. We already got a lot of benefit from the price drop last quarter. The fall in coking coal prices has now stabilised. In fact, it has gone up by $10–15 in the last few weeks. But from a consumption point of view, we expect the cost to be about $10 lower this quarter versus the last.

Q: You’ve guided for savings of around ?11,500 crore across geographies in the coming year. What does this mean for profitability? When does Europe turn EBITDA-positive? What’s the EBITDA trend for India?

A: In Europe, we’re in the middle of transformation, both in the UK and the Netherlands. The challenge there is the constant need to transform. In the UK, we’ve closed the blast furnaces and will commission the electric arc furnace in 2027. In the interim, we’re taking out a lot of costs. We’ve already removed about £230 million in fixed costs last year and plan to cut another £200 million this year.

In the Netherlands, we are in the middle of a major transformation. From €450–500 million negative EBITDA to €80–90 million positive. That’s a swing of €500 million despite tough market conditions. We expect this trend to continue.

So yes, we expect the Netherlands to stay EBITDA-positive and improve further. The UK is close to break-even, and cost savings from last year will play out this year. For FY26, we expect Europe—UK and Netherlands combined—to be EBITDA-positive, though more work remains.

As for India, I can’t give specific EBITDA guidance, but we expect it to be better than last year.

Q: By which quarter does the European business turn positive? And what’s the timeline for the UK turning green?

A: Europe will move into the green from this quarter itself. The UK will still be marginally negative this quarter, but we hope to turn positive in the next couple of quarters. We expect the UK to be EBITDA-positive for the full year.

Q: Let’s talk about the debt. Working capital release has helped reduce it from ?88,000 crore to ?82,000 crore. Capex is ongoing too. Could you share your FY26 capex and net debt guidance?

A: Capex will remain around ?15,000 crore. We’re completing the Kalinganagar expansion, and much of the spending is between last year and this year.

Last year was tough. We were emerging from a weak market, with peak capex at Kalinganagar, and volume ramp-up still underway. We expect better cash flows in FY26 and plan to reduce debt. I’m not giving a specific number, but we certainly intend to bring the debt down.

Q: So net debt at the end of FY26 will be lower than FY25? Could it drop by $1 billion?

A: Yes, that’s correct. Whether it’s $1 billion or not, we’re chasing that goal, but we’re still some distance away. We are working on it.

Q: A question on global trade. Are Donald Trump’s tariff moves affecting demand and supply? How are you reading the situation globally?

A: What it has done is provoked everyone to look at themselves. So if I look at Europe today, they are looking at how they can work in an environment where they can’t depend as much on the US as they did in the past. You see a lot more positive thinking in Europe about manufacturing, about investing in defence, etc.

Over the medium to long term, it’s positive for Europe, because they will spend more in Europe, whether it’s what Germany has already announced, or what the other countries are planning to spend more. So there is a medium to long-term positive impact on Europe, as manufacturing will get a boost.

But having said that, in the short term, we are dealing with these tariffs. The UK has got into an understanding with the US. So we don’t see a negative impact of the Trump tariffs, because the UK has got itself a deal.

But as far as the EU is concerned, they’re still negotiating. About 700,000 tonnes of steel goes from our Netherlands operation to the US. Some of that went to the US. Some of those steels are not made in the US. So to that extent, our customers in the US are also struggling with these tariffs, and part of those tariffs will obviously get passed on to the customers there. But that’s a discussion we are having. We’re also waiting to see what the EU government and the Trump government conclude in their discussions.

Q: Lastly, what is your India volume growth guidance for FY26? Is domestic demand holding up well?

A: Demand has been quite reasonable. In fact, it's because the demand has been strong that Indian steel producers have managed without exporting much, because international prices are not great and export markets are not really attractive. From that perspective, the Indian demand is holding up okay. This year, we are expecting about a 1.5 million tonnes more than last year. We have another blast furnace realigning coming up in Jamshedpur, and that's why we have some loss of volume in Jamshedpur because of that. But net, we should be about a 1.5 million tonnes more this year compared to last year.

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