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Print[ferro-alloys.com] In August, the LME nickel price fluctuated seriously. In early time of this month, affected by the sound economic data of China and Europe, the nickel price continued to go up. But the highest point didn’t exceed USD$15,000/mt. In last ten-day of Aug., the expectation for QE reduction strengthened, adding to the Syria unrest, the LME nickel price constantly dropped. Up to Aug. 30th, the nickel price had already reached below USD$14,000/mt and the stock surpass 210,000tons. The rising stock restricted the nickel price’s rising. In China, the nickel metal price rose to RMB103,800/mt in mid-Aug, while depressed by the LME Ni market, it decreased to RMB99,800/mt in late of this month. The weak trend of nickel market made the downstream purchase cautious.
In the first half year of 2013, the ferronickel price continued to go down. At the end of June, the high FeNi price had already reached RMB905/Ni, RMB280-300/Ni lower compared with January. FeNi manufactures operated hard and many of them lost. The operating rate kept at 50% for several months. From end of June, the FeNi price come to steady and started to go up due to the tight supply. For this reason, the ferronickel price went through the rising trend in the whole August. And meanwhile, the operating rate also increased to 60%.the bidding price of high FeNi also improved by RMB100 in Sep.
High FeNi bidding price summary of major steel mills: Unit:RMB/Ni
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Data
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Tisco
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Baosteel
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Jisco
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|
Sep.
|
990
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1020
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970-1020
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|
Aug.
|
920
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920
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920
|
|
Jul.
|
905
|
905
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905/920
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|
Jun.
|
910
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905
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905
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|
May
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950/930
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980
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930
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|
Apr.
|
1100
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1110
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1130
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|
Mar.
|
1150
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1250
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1170
|
|
Feb
|
1180
|
1160
|
1180
|
|
Jan.
|
1180
|
1170
|
1180
|
By the end of Aug. the rising trend of ferronickel price in China was restricted by the downturn LME nickel price. And it stabilized at RMB1,000-1,020/Ni temporarily. At the same period, the nickel metal price down to RMB97,500/mt owing to certain price advantage compared with FeNi. The total supply of FeNi would not increase much in short time as the discontinued producers were cautious for the later trend. Adding to the high cost of nickel ores, the ferronickel price would not decrease soon. But if the LME nickel price continued to decline, the FeNi price might slightly go down.
According to the latest statistics from the Customs, the nickel ore import volume of China in July was 6,552,617tons, 20.8% higher than last month, 9.8% higher year-on-year. The total amount in June increased by 3.1% month-on-month to USD402, 234,931, and grew by 0.5% than the same period of 2012. Specifically, the import volume from Philippines in July was 3,950,268 tons, rising by 41% than last month, falling 12.7% than that of 2012; the import volume from Indonesia was 2,553,195tons, dropping by 0.7% m-o-m while increasing by 79.6% y-o-y. the total imports of Ni ores from Jan. to July was 37,731,400 tons, improving by21.1% than last month and growing by 14.85% comparing with the same period of 2012, and the total amount was USD2,920,232,676, increasing by 15.8% m-o-m, and growing by 2% y-o-y.
The nickel ores market in August also increased, especially in first two weeks. Later, affected by the declining nickel price, the rising trend was blocked. The main reasons for the price recovery were: I. the stainless steel and the FeNi price rose, making the consumption speed increase. According to the statistics, at the end of Aug. the nickel ore stock had declined to 19.5million tons, 2.2million tons lower than early of July. II. The nickel ores supply decreased as the export volume from Indonesia fell due to the Ramadan holida, and many traders were reluctant to sell, at the end of Aug. the medium and high nickel ores increased by RMB50-60/mwt, and low nickel ores price rose by RMB20-30/mwt. Specifically, 1.8% was RMB370-380/mwt, 1.9% RMB420-430/mwt, 2.0% RMB470-480/mwt. 0.9-1.1%（Fe50%，water33%）RMB295/mwt.
Now the supply was still tight, some steel mills, like Lianzhong stainless steel raised the price to RMB1070-1080/Ni. But more steel mills chose to wait and see. It is expected that the FeNi and nickel ores market would temporarily keep stable and might decline later if the LME Ni price continued to go down.
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