The management of BHP's spin-off of unwanted assets, South32, will have little choice but to chase acquisitions if they want to pursue growth, according to Deutsche Bank. 

Deutsche Bank mining analyst Paul Young says the new company will rely on commodity prices, fixed cost reductions and currency depreciation to drive earnings growth, because its production will fall as grade declines. 

"We see limited opportunities for organic growth and believe South32 will need to go on the hunt for acquisitions, both operating assets and greenfield projects," Mr Young said.

BHP is aiming to list South32 by June.

As well as acquisitions, South32's foundation management, led by outgoing BHP chief financial officer Graham Kerr, will likely focus on cost cutting.

Mr Young values the spin-off at $US13 billion, or $US10 billion at spot prices. Previous estimates were about $US15 billion.

A 5 per cent reduction in fixed costs could create up to an additional $US1.5 billion of value, he said.

BHP is likely to punt about $US2 billion of debt into South32, while gearing is expected to be between 10 and 20 per cent.

The crash in bulk commodity prices since BHP unveiled its then unnamed spin-off in August has led some analysts and commentators to suggest that BHP could delay or abandon South32.

After the spin-off the mining giant will be left with its four key "pillar" commodities of iron ore, petroleum, copper and coal, and will miss any upside from recovering prices in commodities like bauxite when those assets move into South32.

But most analysts back the demerger, saying it is strategically sound.

South32's management will likely adopt a 30 to 40 per cent payout ratio as opposed to the progressive dividend favoured by BHP, given earnings are at a cyclical low, Mr Young says.

The average life of South32's assets is 13 years and some assets face challenges to extend their operating life, Mr Young said.

South32 will produce manganese, silver, zinc, lead, aluminium, nickel, coking coal and thermal coal across a suite of solid quality assets that have been short of love and capital under BHP.

Mr Young has ranked the South32 assets by value, margin and mine life, in a special report released on Tuesday, saying the aluminium and manganese assets are about 70 per cent of the value of the company.

The most valuable are its Worsley alumina operations in Western Australia, valued at $US4 billion, its Hillside aluminium smelter (at $US2.7 billion) and its manganese operation on Groote Eylandt, at $US1.8 billion.

They are followed closely by Illawarra coal, silver-zinc-lead mine Cannington and South Africa Coal.

South32 is not short on challenges – with its South Africa asset base the most potentially problematic.

Mr Kerr's management team must make decision on a reinvestment in South Africa Coal, and is also facing possible Black Empowerment ownership concessions and steep power price increases in South Africa. 

• [Editor:Yueleilei]